Why The Top 5 Smartphone Brands Could Reshuffle?

Market Backdrop (H1 2025 To H2 2025)

1. Shipments in H1 2025 were around 70 Mn units (Q1 ~33 Mn; Q2 ~37 Mn). IDC noted that Q2 grew 7.3% YoY, ending a two-quarter slump; H1 up ~1% YoY. Counterpoint/Canalys triangulate a similar rebound (Q2 up 8%/7% YoY).

2. ASPs hit a record ~USD275 with 5G at ~87% of shipments providing tailwinds for brands with stronger mid/premium portfolios and financing.

3. Assumption for the full year (consistent with past seasonality): ~155M for 2025 with a ~45:55 split --> H2 ≈ 85M units.

   
   
   
   
   
   

Brand-wise Outlook

1. Apple: Set to re-enter (and hold) the top 5.

Where does Apple stand now?

• Q1 2025 share: ~9.5% (record Q1, highest YoY growth among top brands).

• Q2 2025 share: ~7.5%; H1 shipments ~5.9M (+21.5% YoY); iPhone 16 was the most shipped single model in India in H1.

In value terms, Apple ran neck-and-neck with Samsung at ~23% value share in Q2, underscoring premium strength.

What were the factors that supported growth?

Local manufacturing scale-up (Foxconn/Tata), insulation from tariff noise, and better supply for new launches.

Seasonality & projection

Apple historically peaks in Q3-Q4 with new iPhone launches. Q2 momentum plus launch quarter suggests a step-up in H2. It's a seasonality pattern well corroborated by multiple trackers over the years.

Now, Let's do some basic math (using market totals and a conservative growth dial):

H1 Apple share ≈ 5.9 / 70 = 8.4% (~8.5%).

Apply a moderated +35% uplift to H2 share (vs last year’s ~45–50% H2 surge, trimmed for a higher base) ⇒ H2 share ≈ 8.5% × 1.35 = 11.5%.

H2 Apple units ≈ 11.5% × 85M = ~9.8M.

FY 2025 Apple units ≈ 5.9M + 9.8M = ~15.7M ⇒ ~10.1% share of 155M.

But, how is this plausible:

1. Premium traction: Apple tied for #1 by value share in Q2 (23%).

2. Model pull: iPhone 16 was India’s #1 shipped model in H1.

3. Supply chain de-risking in India improves availability around launch windows.

Implication: A ~10% full-year share puts Apple in or above the 2024/early-2025 levels of Xiaomi/Realme, supporting a Top-5 finish.

2. Motorola: Credible standing as #6, with an outside shot at top 5.

• Q1 2025 share ~7.5%; Q2 ~8.0% (steady QoQ climb). (Derived from market totals and reported brand shares.)

• YoY momentum is strong in Q2 and Counterpoint pegs +86% YoY on demand for G/Edge lines and wider offline reach.

Projection using the same market totals:

Take H2 at 85 Mn and extend the modest QoQ lift seen in H1:

Q3: ~8.28% of 40M ≈ 3.31M

Q4: ~8.84% of 45M ≈ 3.98M

H1 base ≈ 2.4M (Q1) + 3.0M (Q2) ≈ 5.4M (Q1=7.5%×32M; Q2=8%×37M).

FY 2025 Motorola units ≈ 5.4M + 3.31M + 3.98M ≈ 12.7M ⇒ ~8.2% share.

Why the glidepath holds:

1. Product-market fit in ₹10k–₹20k 5G tiers where demand is expanding (5G = 87% of shipments).

2. Documented channel expansion and strong G/Edge sell-through.

Implication: ~8% full-year share keeps Motorola close to the top 5, especially if Xiaomi/Realme soften further.

3. Xiaomi & Realme:

   
   

Why Are They Vulnerable?

1. Xiaomi fell out of the top 5 in Q1 2025 (IDC) as realme edged it for #4 (10.6%).

   In Q2 2025, Xiaomi ~8% and Realme ~10% by volume (Counterpoint), trailing Vivo/Samsung and behind Apple in value terms.

2. Segment mix is shifting away from their core

   The mass-budget USD100 - USD200 band - a stronghold for realme/Xiaomi - shrank in share from 44% to 42%, while ASPs climbed to USD275. Premium/value-led segments grew faster.

3. Affordable 5G is booming but crowded; leaders here (Vivo/Oppo/Samsung) are grabbing a disproportionate slice.

Execution & revenue stress (Xiaomi)

Xiaomi’s India smartphone wholesale revenue fell ~45% YoY in March-quarter 2025, despite a premium push - evidence of turbulence in its local strategy.

Competitive intensity

• Apple is now consistently in top two by value and posted India-best model shipments for iPhone 16.

• Motorola is scaling fast on the back of new Moto G/Edge wave and offline expansion.

Net effect: Even if Xiaomi/Realme stabilize, their combined share ceiling looks lower in a market with higher ASPs and premium value capture - precisely where Apple is strongest. Growth in Motorola and Nothing is coming majorly at the expense of Xiaomi and Realme diluting their share. Both Motorola and Nothing are expected to continue their growth story.

Bottom Line (2025)

Apple: Projected ~15.7M units (~10% share). In top 5 very likely given H2 seasonality, strong model pull, and value leadership.

Motorola: Projected ~12.7M (~8.2% share). Probable ranking as a solid #6, with a path into top 5 if Xiaomi/Realme slip further.